PETALING JAYA: Independent research firm Ilham Centre has predicted that Barisan Nasional will win the Semenyih by-election.
The centre's latest survey showed that Barisan will be able to pull off an upset and recapture the seat which was won by Pakatan Harapan during the general election last year.
"Pakatan needs the magic formula of a high turnout and high level of support in order to retain the seat," said the centre's executive director Azlan Zainal in a statement on Friday (March 1).
He said several factors contributed to its prediction, including Pakatan's ineffective strategy, a candidate lacking charisma, a highly motivated Barisan and indirect backing from PAS.
He said Pakatan's campaign was not as organised as Barisan, and it only generated excitement among voters in the final round of rallies by Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
"Barisan, however, was more focused and were able to control the social media narrative," he said.
He said Pakatan's candidate Muhammad Aiman Zainali seemed to be unable to engage the voters, adding that their attention was more focused on Barisan's Zakaria Hanafi.
"Aiman's approval ratings are at 34.4% which shows that he is unable to convince the voters in this survey.
"Barisan has also been galvanised by their win in Cameron Highlands and brought that momentum to Semenyih, using Pakatan's failure in fulfilling its promises as the focal point of their attack," he said.
Azlan said Barisan has also prioritised race and religious issues to seduce the Malay majority in a bid to win back the seat that it held since 1959 before losing it last year.
He also said that former premier Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak's "Bossku" tour during the campaign provided added value to Barisan's campaign with 56.6% people in the survey approving it.
"While PAS has largely refrained from criticising Harapan unlike during the Cameron Highlands by-election campaign, about 84% of people surveyed, who identified themselves as PAS supporters, have pledged to vote Barisan" he said.
Azlan said the survey also showed that 74.6% of respondents agreed that Pakatan had failed to fulfil their election pledges, while 58.7% agreed that the Pakatan government had failed to safeguard Malay-Muslim interests.
The findings are based on a survey involving 378 voters and conducted from Feb 26 to 28.
The Semenyih by-election was called after Pakatan assemblyman Bakhtiar Mohd Nor died on Jan 11.
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