PETALING JAYA: The odds are against Pakatan Harapan as three-cornered fights would most likely benefit Barisan Nasional in the coming general election, a forecast by a social media research firm predicted.
The Jan 11 report by Politweet.org titled “Election forecast for Pakatan Harapan in Peninsular Malaysia” provided an overview of electorate data and forecasted GE14 results based on analyses of past elections, individual voting patterns and electoral simulations.
In three-cornered fights involving PAS, Barisan and a Pakatan component party, the Islamist party would take away anti-Barisan votes from Pakatan, according to the report.
The report analysed Pakatan’s seat distribution and found that Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Pribumi) and Parti Amanah Negara are contesting in mostly rural, Malay-majority seats where PAS won majority during the 13the general election (GE13).
This means the large share of opposition-leaning voters would be split between Pakatan and PAS, it said.
“The only way for Pakatan to overcome this is for their parties (especially Pribumi) to win over pro-BN supporters,” the report said.
Overall, the report showed a small increase in support for Barisan due to the high proportion of new Malay voters in GE13 Barisan-strongholds.
Based on data from the electoral roll in the first quarter of 2017, Politweet predicted that 39% of voters in the peninsula leaned towards Barisan, a 1% increase in support from GE13.
Meanwhile, 44% of the voters leaned towards the Opposition - unchanged from GE13. The remaining voters were fence-sitters.
On new voters in the peninsula, the report showed 45% leaning towards Barisan, 44% towards the opposition, and 11% on the fence.
The report concluded that in a straight-fight against Barisan, Pakatan would need a five-point swing in support in order to firmly win 115 seats and take office.
However, it said a three-seat majority win (the minimum is 112 seats) would not be enough to form a stable government.
It said Pakatan would also need to win an additional 10 or more seats in Sabah and Sarawak.
Politweet predicted that Pakatan would face difficulty winning 10 seats based on their poor performance in the 2016 Sarawak state elections and the current state of the Opposition in Sabah.
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