ROMPIN: Barisan Nasional shouldn’t have any problems retaining the Rompin by-election on May 5 but whether it can maintain or increase its majority is the question.
An analysis showed that the majority could be reduced this time round, primarily due to the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), now a rallying cry of the opposition.
Many residents approached by The Star Online said they had supported Barisan all their lives but this time round their dissatisfaction is over the implementation of the tax scheme.
PAS, the sole challenger of Barisan, has been harping on GST in all their daily ceramah, adopting it as part of the campaign slogan – Satu undi PAS, Satu undi tolak GST (One vote for PAS is one vote against GST).
Bukit Ibam assemblyman Datuk Wan Kadri Wan Mahusain feels there shouldn’t be a problem for Umno to retain the seat.
“PAS ini penipu banyak (There are a lot of liars in PAS). The people won’t believe them,” he said.
Interestingly, some Barisan supporters The Star Online spoke to said they might not vote and if they do, they would spoil their ballot paper as a sign of protest.
Not many though think that PAS has a chance of dethroning Barisan.
“PAS will probably reduce the margin a bit but not to the extent of threatening the seat,” said Ibrahim Suffian of the Merdeka Research Centre.
The Rompin parliamentary seat fell vacant after six-term incumbent Tan Sri Dr Jamaluddin Jarjis was killed in a helicopter crash along with five others near Semenyih on April 4.
Datuk Hasan Arifin, a former deputy mentri besar and two-term assemblyman will take on Pahang PAS Youth chief Nazri Ahmad in the by-election.
PAS has been putting up a brave front and has said it is not contesting this by-election merely as a warm-up to the next general election or to reduce the majority of the their loss previously.
“We enter a by-election to win it,” said PAS deputy president Mohamad Sabu when asked if PAS stood a chance of winning the seat after the nominations on April 22.
In the May 2013 general election, Jamaluddin retained the seat by beating former Wanita PAS chief Nuridah Mohd Salleh with a majority of 15,114 votes.
Barisan's majority had in fact increased from 9,350 votes and 10,679 votes in the 2004 and 2008 general elections respectively.
The Election Commission expects the voter turnout to be about 80%, from 85.42% in the last general election.
There are three state seats under the Rompin seat – Muadzam Shah, Tioman and Bukit Ibam – all won comfortably by Umno in the last election.
In fact since day one, the Rompin seat and the state seats under it have always under been under the control of Barisan Nasional.
The constituency has 53,294 registered voters, comprising 52,744 ordinary voters, 545 early voters and five absentee voters.
Malay voters make up 88% of the electorate, followed by 8.3% Orang Asli and 2.5% Chinese.
The key to winning the election will rest on the Felda settlers who make up about 52% of the electorate and they are most likely to vote for Barisan regardless of the issues brought up by PAS.
There are 14 Felda settlements in Rompin located in Keratong, Selanchar and Selendang.
The first generation Felda settlers are largely thankful that the Government has helped them move away from poverty – they have houses and are now even able to hire foreign workers to work their land.
The rumblings of discontent come mainly from the second-generation settlers, as they are known. Besides the GST issue, they are not happy about second-generation housing and the issue of Felda General Ventures (FGV) Sdn Bhd shares.
PAS candidate Nazri is the son of a Felda settler and the party will surely make use of that to try to garner the votes from these key areas.
He, however, isn’t as well-known as his opponent Hasan who was deputy Mentri Besar of Pahang from 1995-1999.
A Selendang Felda settler, who only wanted to be known as Mahmud, 62, observed that while many voters complained about the Government, they still ended up voting for Barisan.
He said they would make noise for a while if fuel prices went up but it never made a difference in the end.
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