Burnt and vandalised vehicles in front of the Prime Ministers buildings in the Singha Durbar in Kathmandu. — Atul Loke/The New York Times
JUST weeks before Nepal erupted in flames last month, India had invited Nepali prime minister KP Sharma Oli to New Delhi on a state visit, partly to smooth over testy ties between the neighbours.
Oli never got the chance. He was forced to resign as sudden protests engulfed the small Himalayan nation, fuelled by young people’s anger at corruption, elitism and inequality.
A similar uprising in Bangladesh last year unseated Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian government. And in 2022, protests in Sri Lanka over a collapsing economy drove out a president from a powerful political dynasty accused of corruption.
Hindus in Dhaka, Bangladesh, last year, protesting against recent attacks on their community after Hasina fled the country and her government collapsed. — Atul Loke/The New York Times
Such instability across South Asia distracts India from its global ambitions. Yet, it cannot afford to leave things unattended in its own backyard.
Smaller, poorer neighbours often depend on India for aid and trade, while resenting what they see as bullying or interference.
“India can’t afford to be complacent and conclude that neighbours’ negative sentiment is neutralised by their need for Indian support,” said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. “The risk is that the churn will produce new leaders or give more space to political actors hostile to Indian interests.”
India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy underscores the importance of nurturing ties with nations whose histories and cultures are deeply entwined with its own.
Vandalized and burnt Supreme Court building and vehicles in Kathmandu, on Sept 14, 2025. — Atul Loke/The New York Times
South Asia – encompassing Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan and the Maldives – is home to a quarter of the world’s people and its largest youth population.
But relations are often fraught.
Nepal, with which India shares an open border and deep cultural bonds, has seen ties sour in recent years.
In 2015, as Nepal struggled to recover from devastating earthquakes, India stopped fuel shipments, citing unrest over a proposed new constitution.
Kathmandu accused New Delhi of punishing it for refusing to amend provisions that would have favoured groups with close links to India.
The blockade sparked anti-India sentiment that lingers to this day.
Nepali analyst Apekshya Shah of Tribhuvan University said the dispute left a lasting mark.
“It became a bone of contention with India,” she said.
Locals looking through burnt and vandalised government buildings in Kathmandu. — Atul Loke/The New York Times
Workers cleaning inside the burnt government buildings inside the Singha Durbar in Kathmandu. — Atul Loke/The New York Times
India has also angered neighbours by backing certain political players and refusing to adjust when those allies fall out of favour.
In Bangladesh, relations deteriorated after then prime minister Hasina fled into exile in India last year.
Many Bangladeshis resent New Delhi’s continued support for her despite her authoritarian record.
At the same time, attacks on Hindu minorities in Bangladesh have stirred outrage among India’s Hindu right.
India responded by curbing visas for Bangladeshis and restricting the use of land ports for trade.
The new Bangladeshi government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has since sought to diversify ties abroad.
Elsewhere, political shifts have complicated India’s regional standing.
In the Maldives, President Mohamed Muizzu campaigned in 2023 on expelling Indian troops, riding the slogan “India Out”.
Yet after taking power, he has softened his stance, visiting New Delhi and securing a US$565mil credit line, with free-trade talks now on the table.
India has always been quick to provide humanitarian aid to neighbours in crisis.
Increasingly, it is also stepping up as a lender and backer of infrastructure projects, trying to counter narratives of neglect.
But mistrust lingers. Many neighbours accuse India of switching between overbearing pressure and inattentiveness.
Pakistan remains hostile, Bangladesh is in flux and Nepal is divided. Sri Lanka, still fragile after years of unrest, remains wary of outside dominance.
Analysts say the region remains a tinderbox of hot borders, polarised politics and fragile economies.
“As a nation with great power aspirations, India has a strategic incentive to ensure its neighbourhood doesn’t become a costly distraction,” said Kugelman.
For now, India still holds the upper hand in South Asia – but it often comes close to squandering it. — ©2025 The New York Times Company
This article originally appeared in The New York Times
