Tall tales about election polls

A polling failure was so immense that supposedly it drove the 'Literary Digest' out of business.

FOR decades, pre-election polls have been essential to how journalists and the public understand the ebb and flow of US presidential campaigns. Much the same can be said for this year's election cycle.

Along with polls in abundance over the next few weeks, we're likely to encounter some of the exaggerated and cockeyed tall tales about presidential campaign surveys – such as the notion that polls got it dramatically wrong in the 2016 election. That sense spread widely in the aftermath of President Donald Trump's stunning victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton and persists to this day. It's enough to make opinion researchers bristle.