US and Europe recovering from recession


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  • Monday, 12 Aug 2013

THE United States and Europe economy show resilience in recovering from recession.

Dollar weakens after the US trade balance shrank to US$34.2bil in July while jobless claims continue to maintain on contraction.

Another report on US stockpiles declined for a third month in June by 0.2% amid rising consumer demands.

Europe services jumped to 49.8 in July while Germany has been indicating strong data recovery that leads Euro currency in firm sentiment.

However, gold and crude traded in volatile trends due to widespread speculation of tapering Federal stimulus next month.

Gold prices traded in very volatile trend last week.

Market plunged down from intraweek high 1320.00 levels to 1272.00 bottoms before pulling to close at 1314.00 levels on Friday.

Technically, we reckon the market to be prone bias to bearishness this week if 1320.00 resistances can remain intact.

Downside will probably re-test 1290.00 bottoms or even dip further to 1270.00 levels.

Abandon your short-view if the bulls march higher above 1320.00 as this may be due to unexpected fundamental strength which will push the prices back to 1340.00 regions.

Silver prices closed higher on weekly basis at 20.540 on Friday.

Market sentiment was bullish before the session ended as traders closed their positions for the weekend.

The technical outlook is tough to forecast though we foresee some selling pressure may act at 26.800 regions above current market prices.

In our opinion, we reckon a consolidation may take place this week from 19.900 — 20.800 ranges before following the gold prices extension.

Observe the breakaway in either direction after mid-week to favour your position.

WTI crude prices behaved in volatile trend due to weakening US dollar last week.

The market ranged from 107.60 highs to 102.20 bottoms and retraced upwards to 106.00 areas on Friday closing.

This week, we forecast the market will probably trade from 104.00 — 107.60 areas while depending on the weekly crude inventories every Wednesday.

In our opinion, we favour selling from pull-up retracement as the outlook is prone to fall more likely in bearish patterns.

Abandon your short view if the prices penetrate above 108.00 resistances.

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Derivatives traded in light volume last week ahead of the long weekend.

The market may continue to be inactive on Monday until middle of the week.

October delivery month closed at 2210 last Wednesday. This week, we reckon that breaking below 2200 supports will slide further.

Our opinion project the range to be moving from 2120 — 2300 regions. Breaking beyond the extreme is a sign of new direction.

> Disclaimer: This article is for general information only.

> DAR Wong and Wahyu PY are the research team of PWFOREX.com. You may reach them through www.pwforex.con

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