EU climate monnitor Copernicus said 2024 would likely be more than 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average -- the period before the industrial-scale burning of fossil fuels. — Photo: Marccophoto/Getty Images, via ETX DailyUP
This year is shaping up to be the the hottest on record and the first year in which average temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average, EU scientists reported on Thursday.
However, the Paris 1.5-degree Celsius target for curbing the climate crisis is not yet considered missed, as longer-term average values are the basis for this assessment, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) stated.
The agency forecasts that the average global temperature for the current year could even be at least 1.55 degrees Celsius above the worldwide pre-industrial average, compared to 1.48 degrees Celsius in 2023. UN Secretary-General António Guterres had already spoken of a "climate breakdown" at that time.
"After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset," said C3S deputy director Samantha Burgess.
"This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29."
The conference is to start on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Climate scientist Mojib Latif is sceptical about the effectiveness of the meeting, saying the gatherings are not effective. He told dpa that he foresees no breakthrough in Baku, even if the final declaration writers will try to sell it as such.
At the 2015 World Climate Conference in Paris, countries globally agreed to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
There's a highly symbolic value to the 1.5-degree target, explained climate scientist Steve Smith from the University of Oxford.
