The ballots are in the mail, and early on the morning of Jan 31 we'll know who has been honored with a nomination by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. 

On that day a year's worth of performances will be boiled down to just 20 names of the actors officially in competition for an Oscar. Until then - in theory, anyway - everybody has a chance. In reality, a dozen or more of those 20 acting slots are already locked in, occupied by actors whom just about everyone agrees are a sure thing. (Although the academy is still capable of surprising us ... i.e., not nominating Paul Giamatti last year for Sideways).