The trend with China is a bit unsettling following this week’s tariff escalation. — Reuters
MOST global importers last year took advantage of plentiful and cheaper US bulk agricultural commodities, including soybeans and corn, the top-ticket items.
But China somewhat sat out on that rush.
Milestones were notched among the top US bulk grain destinations in 2024, as average export prices fell by more than one-fifth versus 2023.
Lower prices meant this group of commodities pulled in 5% less revenue than a year earlier, but the quantity was up significantly according to US Census Bureau data published on Wednesday.
Bulk exports
By volume, US bulk agricultural exports in 2024 surged 22% on the year, the biggest annual rise in a decade.
Tonnages to No 2 Mexico and No 4 Colombia smashed records, rising 29% and 20% above the previous highs, respectively.
Bulk exports to No 3 Japan and No 5 South Korea were up 43% and 107% on the year, respectively, with those volumes reaching six and three-year highs.
These four countries accounted for 44% of the total exported volume.
China was narrowly the largest destination for US bulk exports last year, accounting for 24% of the total, though the volume was down 5% on the year. This marked a five-year low, but excluding trade war years, it was an 11-year low.
The trend with China is a bit unsettling following this week’s tariff escalation.
However, heavier involvement from other importers is a positive sign, especially as some industry participants have feared some markets might be weaning off US agriculture, especially other Asian destinations.
Bigger picture
By value, US agricultural and related product exports totalled US$191bil in 2024, up fractionally from 2023. That is the third-largest on record in nominal dollar terms, down from 2022’s high of US$213bil.
Canada, which along with China and Mexico comprise the top three markets for US agriculture, was the leading destination for US farm goods in 2024.
The three countries accounted for US$91bil or 48% of US agricultural exports last year, and that percentage share is consistent with the previous three years.
Although bulk commodity prices were down in 2024, export prices for other top farm goods were higher on the year and pulled in more revenue versus 2023 despite mixed trends in volumes.
Rising prices
Prices for beef, pork, tree nuts and dairy products all rose on the year, grossing US$37bil in exports, some 19% of the total.
These four commodities were among the top seven farm exports along with corn, soybeans and forest products.
Aside from Mexico and Colombia, US farm export values last year reached at least decade-high – if not record – levels to the United Kingdom, India, the Dominican Republic and Guatemala, to name a few.
Although the size of these markets pales in comparison with China’s, maintaining and expanding them never hurts, especially when trade with larger partners is in question. — Reuters
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
