Recession fears drive volatility

One of the biggest arguments against central banks has always been about whether it has been able to time monetary policy changes when necessary and not too late or too early. — Bloomberg

LAST week, this column analysed the global debt level and its implication on the economy and currencies, and about a month ago, another article with respect to the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting the key benchmark interest rates was presented on the back of weakening jobs data and tamed inflation prints.

The scenario painted then in the July 13, 2024 column was that the Fed is likely to cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) this year, and able to contain a hard-landing scenario.