Fragile Treasuries relying on rare macro serenity

The Treasury market is at a delicate juncture. — Reuters

ANY hope of sustaining US fiscal accounts at such stretched levels and keeping the fragile bond market equilibrium intact may have to hinge on avoiding any recession at all – a cycle-busting scenario that seems far-fetched to many.

What’s more, if the benign “soft landing” or “no landing” economic forecasts on which the already scary US budget math is predicated fail to play out, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may ultimately be forced to start buying bonds again.