Market reality can be more outlandish than wildcard forecasts

Black Swan event: A file picture showing people wearing masks to prevent the spread of Covid-19. The pandemic had shut down the global economy and yet stocks ended the year 15% higher. — Reuters

IT is that time of year when lists of quirky, semi-serious market forecasts of unpredictable “Black Swan” events and surprises are compiled, but perhaps the biggest tail risk for investors is reality itself.

Who would have said at the end of 2019 that a once-in-a-century global pandemic would hit the world the following year, kill millions of people, shut down the global economy and yet stocks would end the year 15% higher?