Industrial production index
KEY economic data due this week includes Malaysia's industrial production index (IPI), retail sales and unemployment statistics.
The IPI is projected to grow 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the second quarter. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3%, while retail sales are forecast to increase by 7%, according to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s estimates show Malaysia’s IPI increased 3.2% y-o-y in April, compared with 3.1% in March.
China trade data
China is expected to release a range of economic data this week, including inflation, trade, producer price index, and new yuan loans, among others.
Bloomberg estimates China’s May exports rose 14.4% y-o-y, up from 14.1% in April, while imports are expected to grow 27.5% versus 25.3% previously, with a trade surplus of US$88.6bil compared with US$84.82bil in April.
May consumer price index (CPI) is forecast at 1.3% y-o-y, up from 1.2%, according to June 10 estimates.
According to ING, China’s May trade data is expected to show exports rising 19.5% y-o-y and imports increasing 36.4% y-o-y, resulting in a trade surplus of US$86.5bil, with both trade flows having broadly outperformed expectations so far this year.
ING also expects China’s CPI inflation to continue its reflation trend in May, rising slightly to 1.3% y-o-y.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit North Korea on June 8 to 9, marking his first trip to the country since 2019.
Taiwan export data
Taiwan’s May exports are estimated to have surged 42.5% y-o-y, up from 29.2% in April, while imports rose 41.4%, and the trade surplus widened to US$16.08bil in the month from US$14.35bil in April, according to Bloomberg estimates.
ING expects Taiwan’s trade data to show continued strong growth, with exports rising 33.5% y-o-y and imports up 37.4%, with a trade surplus of US$15.5bil. It noted that strong export orders in previous months also point to sustained external demand amid the artificial intelligence boom.
