This year, both consumption and export growth were expected to normalise. — AP
HCM CITY: VinaCapital has offered an optimistic assessment of Vietnam’s economic growth prospects, projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of up to 10% in 2026 under an upside scenario supported by strong infrastructure spending, resilient exports and a modest recovery in domestic consumption.
In its latest macroeconomic report, Looking Ahead at 2026, the investment firm said Vietnam’s economy expanded by 8% in 2025 and was expected to maintain solid momentum this year.
The government expects GDP growth to accelerate to 10% in 2026, and we also see very strong growth potential, driven by soaring infrastructure spending, resilient exports and modest consumption recovery, according to the report.
Michael Kokalari, chartered financial analyst and chief economist at VinaCapital, said economic growth in 2025 was significantly boosted by an 80% jump in exports of laptops and other high-tech items to the United States and by a 42% increase in both Chinese and Indian tourist arrivals, which masked mediocre domestic consumer spending growth.
This year, both consumption and export growth were expected to normalise.
These two dynamics would largely offset each other, while the lagged impact of an infrastructure spending surge in 2025 would support GDP growth in 2026.
“The three main dynamics we expect to drive GDP growth in 2026 are a modest recovery in consumption, the infrastructure–real estate growth nexus, and resilient exports to the United States,” he said.
Under its base-case scenario, VinaCapital forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at around 8% in 2026.
In a more positive scenario, growth could reach 10%, supported by relatively ample policy space that would allow the government to proactively deploy growth-supporting measures if needed.
VinaCapital expects domestic consumption to return to more normal growth levels – though not a boom – by mid-2026, at which point the savings rate will have been elevated for nearly three years, giving households ample time to rebuild a considerable portion of their pre-lockdown savings.
Household incomes have grown at an annual pace of around 6% to 7% over the past two years, while both the stock market and real estate prices rose by more than 30% in 2025, providing a stronger foundation for consumer spending.
However, the firm notes that the government’s ambitious growth target for 2026 can only be achieved with stronger consumption growth.
While authorities have already introduced several measures to support demand, VinaCapital says there remains significant scope for further action.
Recent policy steps include the extension and expansion of a value-added tax reduction, a modest cut in personal income taxes, and partial easing of new taxes on household businesses, which had weighed on consumer sentiment.
While these measures are expected to support spending, their direct impact on GDP growth is estimated at less than 0.5 percentage points.
Nevertheless, VinaCapital stresses that the policy framework is now in place, enabling the government to scale up stimulus if necessary.
Infrastructure investment is expected to be another major growth driver in 2026.
Infrastructure disbursement rose by around 40% in 2025, and VinaCapital forecasts a further 20% to 30% increase this year.
“We see a nexus connecting infrastructure, feeding into real estate, and ultimately boosting consumption,” Kokalari said. — Viet Nam News/ANN
