TA Research forecasts Malaysia’s exports to grow 4.6% year-on-year in 2026.
PETALING JAYA: External uncertainties will continue to weigh on Malaysia’s exports growth in 2026 despite positive momentum seen following the 2025 trade performance.
While generally positive over exports performance in 2025, economists remain cautious for this year. TA Research said last year’s historic trade performance, which saw the highest trade, exports and imports on record, underscored the country’s resilience and competitiveness amid an increasingly uncertain global trade environment.
“While China’s economic slowdown this year may weigh on Malaysia’s export demand, shifts in the global trade landscape could provide a modest offset,” the brokerage said, adding that should US-European Union (EU) trade tensions escalate, US buyers may turn to alternative suppliers in Asia.
“Malaysia stands to benefit in segments where it has a competitive edge, particularly electronics, semiconductors, machinery components, and selected chemicals and rubber products, although major EU-US trade items such as aircraft, automobiles and pharmaceuticals remain less relevant,” it said.
It added that this trade diversion effects could offer incremental support to Malaysia’s 2026 exports performance, given that the United States and EU together account for 22% of total exports.
“We currently forecast Malaysia’s exports to grow 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2026, while imports are expected to rise 6.2% y-o-y, leaving the trade surplus around RM135bil,” it said.
An economist sees further expansion in electrical and electronics (E&E) exports this year, fuelled by artificial intelligence or AI-related demand. Last year, the E&E sector saw robust demand from the United States, Asean and China.
Apex Securities, which has maintained its 4.8% exports growth forecast in 2026, said the strong December 2025 exports reinforced its view that the positive trade momentum would extend into this year. Its 2026 economic forecast has also been maintained at 4.3%.
“Global growth has proven more resilient than expected despite earlier tariff concerns,” it said, but cited external risks, including potential semiconductor-related tariffs on Malaysia.
“Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions may resurface, as tariffs remain a central policy theme under the Trump administration. Lastly, a stronger ringgit could pose some downward pressure on export-oriented industries,” it noted.
The brokerage continues to be positive on investment momentum for 2026, viewing the 11.8% y-o-y decline in capital goods imports in December as temporary, reflecting a short pause in capital purchasing that has historically rebounded quickly in subsequent months.
“Investment momentum should remain intact in 2026, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and continued data centre (DC) expansion amid the global tech upcycle.
“Our view is reinforced by Bank Negara Malaysia’s assessment that DCs accounted for 51% of net foreign direct investment inflows in 2024. We forecast a steady real private investment growth of 8% in 2026 (2025: 9.8%),” it said.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Research said the country’s exports remain in expansionary mode after 2025’s performance, but downside risks persist due to global trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, potential reassessment of technology expectations, and the pending US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of broad-based reciprocal tariffs, which could affect future global trade dynamics.
