Advance GDP
IN a week with limited data release, advance gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) are set to be the main focus.
Bloomberg estimates GDP growth at 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 4Q25, with full-year growth projected at 4.7% in 2025, down from 5.1% in 2024.
Meanwhile, UOB Global Economics and Markets Research estimates GDP growth at 5% y-o-y in 4Q25, with full-year growth also projected at 5% in 2025.
The annual GDP growth rate is projected to reach 4% by the end of this quarter, based on forecasts by Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations. The economy recorded a stronger expansion of 5.2% in 3Q25, compared with 4.4% in the preceding quarter.
China trade data
CHINA is expected to release its trade data and M2 money supply for December this week.
Bloomberg estimates December’s export growth at 3% y-o-y, down from 5.9% in November, and import growth at 0.8% y-o-y, down from 1.9% in November.
The trade surplus is likely to widen to US$114.05bil in December from US$111.68bil in November.
Meanwhile, ING expects China’s export growth to slow slightly to 3% y-o-y, reflecting front-loading effects from last year, while imports could lag at negative 1.6% y-o-y.
ING also expects the full-year trade surplus to be near US$1.2 trillion, driven by a US$118.9bil surplus in December.
BoK rate decision
THE Bank of Korea (BoK) is likely to keep its 2.5% policy rate unchanged on Thursday, according to ING.
While strength in the information technology sector provides some upside, ING noted that the BoK remains cautious amid a weak South Korean won, inflation concerns, housing price pressures and heightened geopolitical risks, which continue to cloud the outlook for future growth.
According to a Bloomberg survey, all six economists polled, including those from UOB, expect the BoK to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.5%.
At its November 2025 meeting, the BoK pivoted away from guiding for further rate cuts in 2026, dropping the reference to “maintain its rate cut stance”.
