Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed
PETALING JAYA: Gold is poised to glitter as it enters 2026, with the yellow metal showing strong momentum amid geopolitical risks, expectations of lower US interest rates and consistent global central banks’ demand for the bullion.
OCBC Bank currency strategist Christopher Wong
Experts are anticipating gold prices to be anywhere between US$4,800 and US$6,000 per ounce this year. OCBC foreign-exchange strategist Christopher Wong told StarBiz that the bank’s base case is that gold remains well-supported in 2026, though the pace of gains should be more measured than the outsized run seen in 2025.
He said the support is not from any single catalyst, but a combination of cyclical and structural pillars.
“Recent geopolitical developments in Venezuela together with US president Donald Trump’s recent comments touching on Greenland, Colombia and Mexico underscore the persistence of geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of episodic flare-ups across multiple regions, even when individual events de-escalate quickly.
“In this environment, gold remains supported not by prolonged conflict per se, but by an ongoing backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and policy unpredictability.
“Beyond near-term geopolitics, the structural case for gold remains intact. Gold continues to serve as a portfolio diversifier and hedge against geopolitical stress, policy uncertainty and stagflation risk.
“What has evolved is the degree of allocation, which is likely to remain structurally higher than in past cycles,” Wong said.
He said bigger fiscal deficits, debt burdens and sanctions, and geopolitical fragmentation have increased the appeal of a non-sovereign, politically neutral reserve and hedging asset.
This is where gold is increasingly treated as a strategic allocation rather than only a crisis hedge, he noted. Wong said even if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) proceeds cautiously, a directionally easier policy backdrop reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold.
“With the Fed still biased toward easing, ongoing demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainty remaining a structural feature rather than a transient one, gold is likely to remain well supported. Our year-end forecast for gold is at US$4,800 per ounce,” he said.
Wong said gold can continue to grind higher in 2026, but in returns, 2026 may not “beat” 2025 after such a strong repricing. Put simply: trend remains constructive, but gains are likely to be more measured and more volatile, Wong noted.
Shan Saeed, global chief economist at Juwai IQI, said the outlook for gold in 2026 remains decisively constructive, underpinned by a convergence of powerful macro forces. He is projecting the price of gold to hover between US$5,200 and US$6,000 per ounce for this year.
“Persistent inflation asymmetries, uneven global growth, heightened geopolitical risk and expanding sovereign balance-sheet pressures continue to reinforce investor preference for real, scarce assets.
“These dynamics have been further accentuated by currency trends. In 2025, the US Dollar Index depreciated by approximately 9.7% against a basket of major currencies, materially strengthening gold’s appeal as an alternative store of value and reaffirming its role as a hedge against monetary debasement,” he said.
Importantly, Shan said many of the drivers behind the bullion’s exceptional performance in 2025 are expected to persist into 2026, including sustained accumulation by emerging-market central banks, continued currency dilution and robust investor demand for safe-haven assets.
He said gold surged by 64% in 2025, while silver delivered an even more pronounced 146% appreciation, underscoring the depth and durability of the current tangible-asset re-rating.
Shan said a defining feature of this cycle has been unprecedented central-bank demand. In 2025, central banks collectively purchased around 1,000 tonnes of gold, marking the third consecutive year of accumulation at or near record levels, he noted.
Looking ahead, he said central bank accumulation is expected to remain elevated in 2026, even if the pace moderates marginally.
The strategic rationale for holding gold remains firmly intact. In Malaysia’s case, gold continues to be managed within a diversified and prudently calibrated reserve framework, he said.
He said Bank Negara Malaysia holds gold as part of its official international reserves, with holdings reported around 38.88 tonnes, valued at about US$4.8bil as of late 2025.
He said from a performance perspective, gold’s percentage gains in 2026 may normalise following an exceptional 2025. However, price levels are expected to remain structurally higher, reflecting consolidation rather than reversal, he added.
Shan said continued central-bank demand, sustained investor rotation into tangible assets, a softer US dollar backdrop, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment collectively supported a favourable medium-term outlook for gold.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought a net 45 tonnes in November 2025, and while down slightly from October, buying has remained elevated compared to the earlier months of 2025.
James Steel, the chief precious metals analyst at HSBC Global Investment Research, said he expects prices to trade to or near US$5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. He said it is possible, however, that moving through 2026, the rally may flag.
“A significant amount of recent investor flow is new to the gold market and characterised by ‘Fomo’ or fear of missing out. This inflow can just as easily reverse and make gold vulnerable to corrections.
“If so, greater supply and reduced physical demand may weigh more notably on prices as 2026 unfolds. The political landscape and US dollar movements, while supportive of gold, may not dictate ever rising gold prices. That said, we by no means see a major decline, at least in percentage terms,” he noted.
