Right time: People exit the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in New York City. SpaceX’s potential US$1.5 trillion listing leads a packed IPO pipeline amid market conditions that are at their most favourable in years. — Reuters
NEW YORK: The US initial public offering (IPO) market is bracing for a rush of deals that is likely to rival or even top the pandemic-era record, with a lineup including some of the most closely watched private companies in technology, finance and crypto, and potentially the biggest listing of all time.
Companies raised US$47.6bil via IPOs on US exchanges last year, excluding blank check companies and financial vehicles, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.
That’s an increase from the year before but still well shy of the US$195.2bil raised in 2021.
Conditions are as favourable as they’ll ever be, with the S&P 500 Index expected to build on its 16% gain in 2025, and the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, hovering near a five-year low.
All eyes are on SpaceX, with billionaire Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company entering a quiet period ahead of a listing as soon as this year at a targeted valuation of about US$1.5 trillion, people familiar with the matter have said.
The IPO could raise significantly more than US$30 billion, which would make it the biggest ever.
“It didn’t grow as much last year as, say, OpenAI, but it’s going to own space,” tech commentator Kara Swisher said in an interview with Bloomberg.
Of companies she views as potential IPO candidates including payments firm Stripe and OpenAI, Swisher named SpaceX as the “most interesting”.
While SpaceX prepares to break IPO records, uncertainty remains around another potential mega-listing, US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Though both government-controlled companies got new leaders last year, expectations of a US$30bil listing as soon as 2025 so far haven’t panned out.
The administration is working “very deliberately” on the IPOs and they will be done sometime in 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in mid-December.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is seeking to move ahead with long-disclosed plans of his own.
An IPO for his US-listed closed-end fund could raise about US$5bil and coincide with the market debut of his hedge fund firm, Pershing Square Capital Management, Bloomberg News has reported.
The market will have a very deep pool of capital available to invest in mega-cap IPOs, according to Paul Abrahimzadeh, a partner at 1789 Capital, an investor in SpaceX, and a former co-head equity capital markets for North America at Citigroup Inc.
“I also think there are thematic companies of meaningful revenue scale with greater than 50% revenue growth that are going to have blow out demand,” Abrahimzadeh said in an interview.
AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems Inc, software firm Databricks and corporate spending management firm Ramp, all of which 1789 has stakes in, would fall in this category when they eventually go public.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto are still among the hottest IPO themes to watch, even as concerns have grown about the investment into both sectors.
AI-enabled fleet management software firm Motive Technologies Inc, backed by firms including Alphabet Inc’s Google Ventures and Kleiner Perkins, became one of the last to file publicly in 2025.
Asia-based travel app maker Klook Technology Ltd, which uses AI in its platform, delayed its plans for a US listing until early this year, people familiar with the matter have said. Crypto-related listings remained volatile following last year’s mixed debuts, as well as bitcoin’s 24% slide in the fourth quarter.
Investors are now watching exchange operator Kraken, which was valued in a November funding round at about US$20bil, and which has filed confidentially for a US IPO.
Others on file publicly that could jump in include Grayscale Investments Inc and BitGo Holdings Inc.
Space and defense activity, another sector with uneven results in 2025, isn’t limited to SpaceX. Contractor York Space Systems Inc filed in November for a listing.
Industrial companies are also in the pipeline. Blackstone Inc-backed compressor maker Copeland has submitted confidential paperwork, as has air quality firm Madison Air Solutions Corp signalling renewed appetite for cyclical businesses as rates ease.
Construction-equipment rental company EquipmentShare.com Inc is publicly on file.
A healthcare IPO is set to kick off the 2026 calendar, and Aktis Oncology Inc’s pricing today looks set to pave the way for more deals.
Diabetes-management firm MiniMed Group Inc is among them, having filed for a public listing as part of a plan to separate from Medtronic Plc.
PicPay, Brazil’s mobile banking app, was the first of this year to file publicly for a US listing that could be sizeable, with an IPO potentially raising as much as US$500mil.
The US economic expansion in the third quarter, bolstered by resilient consumer and business spending, also indicates a healthy backdrop for retail listings.
Organic kids-food maker Once Upon a Farm PBC, co-founded by actress Jennifer Garner, is expected to resume its IPO plans after postponing them in December.
“The rising tide lifts all ships, and a stronger economy means a stronger consumer,” Abrahimzadeh said.
“You’re going have a better environment for consumer and industrial firms in 2026 than we had in 2025.” — Bloomberg
