NEW YORK: A record-sized block trade was placed in the federal funds futures market on Tuesday, just days ahead of a key set of US labour data that could shape US interest rate expectations.
The trade was struck in the January contracts for a size of 200,000, the largest ever as confirmed by CME Group, and stood out in an otherwise calm market.
The motive behind the transaction is unclear. It could be related to an unwinding of existing bets or a wager that could benefit from a potential shift in market pricing for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy rate decision in late January.
Fed funds futures are settled monthly, to the average of the effective fed funds rate for the month, therefore closely tracking the perceived futures path of Fed policy rates.
The last trading date on the January fed funds contract is Jan 30, soon after the Jan 28 policy announcement.
With a few basis points of a rate cut at that meeting currently priced in the market, a wager stands to gain if these are faded. — Bloomberg
