A farmer looks after his cows in an abandoned rice field due to lack of fresh water, in Vietnam's southern Ben Tre province on March 19, 2024. Every day, farmer Nguyen Hoai Thuong prays in vain for rain to fall on the cracked dry earth of her garden in Vietnam's Mekong Delta -- the country's "rice bowl" agricultural heartland.A blazing month-long heatwave has brought drought, parching the land in Thuong's home of Ben Tre province, 130 kilometres (80 miles) south of business hub Ho Chi Minh City. (Photo by Nhac NGUYEN / AFP)
HANOI: The domestic livestock industry is predicted to face significant challenges in the new year.
The latest forecasts indicate that meat imports into Vietnam will continue to rise this year, surpassing levels seen last year.
This growth is primarily driven by the increasing price gap between domestically produced and imported meat.
Imported pork is estimated to double compared with 2024.
Analysts believe that the significant disparity between the price of domestic and imported pork, especially frozen pork, has led processing businesses to turn to foreign suppliers. This shift helps reduce production costs and maximise profits.
India remains the largest supplier of meat and meat products to Vietnam.
In addition, domestic businesses are also increasing imports of meat and meat products from Russia, the United States, Brazil, Canada, Poland, Spain, and China.
Notably, imported frozen meat from some countries is priced at only 42,000 dong to 45,000 dong or about US$1.60 to US$1.70 per kg, putting significant pressure on domestic pork prices, especially in the processing and industrial catering segments.
Given this situation, many are concerned that small-scale domestic pig farming will find it very difficult to compete in the future.
Especially in countries with strong industrial-scale livestock farming, there is an advantage in optimising production costs and standardising quality, leading to lower prices even for imported products from distant markets compared with domestically produced livestock.
And even if small-scale farmers can utilise agricultural by-products, the costs of vaccines, housing, slaughtering and transportation remain too high, not to mention diseases or floods, making it difficult to avoid losing out in their home market.
Regarding the potential surge in imported frozen meat, Tran Kim Khanh, a market development specialist at San Ha Co Ltd, a small and medium-sized enterprise in the livestock and meat processing sector, said in an interview with VnBusiness online magazine that although this would put considerable pressure on the domestic livestock industry, he still believes that fresh domestic meat products would remain competitive against imported frozen meat.
He explained that consumers are now considering more than just prices, but are also questioning whether or not to buy frozen products.
The analysis department of securities firm SSI Securities Corp stated in their latest assessment of the prospects for the domestic livestock industry that structural barriers including increasingly stringent farm licensing regulations, land scarcity, long biological cycles, and disease risks would continue to limit the ability to expand capacity quickly.
As a result, this would accelerate the process of business selection, reduce the proportion of small-scale livestock farmers and strengthen the role of large-scale livestock enterprises.
According to the analysis department of Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), the market share of household-based livestock farming is shrinking.
The structure of the livestock industry is witnessing a strong and continuous shift towards the corporate model.
The market share of livestock enterprises reached 47% of total production by the end of last year, significant growth of three percentage points compared to the level recorded in 2024.
VCBS predicts that the trend will continue to accelerate. It is estimated that the structure of livestock farming by farmers will shrink significantly by 2030, accounting for only about 25% of the total market share.
The shrinkage mainly stems from two key reasons. The first is stricter legal regulations and standardisation.
The official implementation of the Livestock Law last year established stricter standards regarding biosecurity, environmental protection, and animal welfare.
This has made it difficult for most small-scale livestock farmers to meet the legal requirements to maintain operations.
At the same time, large enterprises are gradually reducing the scale and number of farms linked with smallholders to optimise quality control and disease safety.
Secondly, there is a risk of disease outbreaks and higher costs.
The disease situation remains unresolved, especially African Swine Fever, which continues to threaten small-scale livestock farming.
The risk of disease outbreaks leads to escalating costs for animal culling and biosecurity compliance, making the small-scale farming model less efficient and unsustainable economically.
With the rapid process of filtering out small-scale livestock farmers, the future playing field will belong to those who remain, large-scale enterprises and farms that have passed harsh tests.
Analysts pointed out that the key to improving the competitiveness of the domestic livestock industry this year lies in the efficiency of sustainable farming models implemented by domestic enterprises.
They also need to build a competitive advantage through superior livestock productivity and low production costs, supported by high-quality breeding stock and modern farm management systems, experts said. — Viet Nam News/ANN
