Perodua's QV-E — RAJA FAISAL HISHAN/The Star
PETALING JAYA: Automobile sales may rise in the fourth quarter of this year (4Q25) compared with 3Q25 as consumers rush to buy imported electric vehicles (EVs) ahead of the expiry of the tax exemption for such models at the end of this year, says CIMB Research.
The research house, which has maintained a “neutral” rating on automotive stocks, said sales would also be supported by the launch of new Proton and Perodua models despite total industry volume declining in November on a month-on-month basis after record passenger and commercial vehicle sales in October.
CIMB Research has a “buy” call on automotive and industrial equipment group Sime Darby Bhd
with a target price of RM2.24.
The research house said it projects a compounded annual growth rate in core net profit of 7.1% for Sime Darby over three years driven by recovery in its industrial segment, sustained contributions from UMW Holdings Bhd, and improved cost control in its vehicles division.
“We project a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase in sales volume in 4Q25, supported by new model launches from national brands and last-minute purchases of completely built-up (CBU) EVs,” the research house said.
It added that Proton reportedly secured over 30,000 bookings for its 2026 Saga MC3 model within two weeks of launch.
Other national models launched recently include Perodua’s first EV, the QV-E at the beginning of this month, followed by the Trax sport utility vehicle on Dec 17.
“Collectively, we expect these new model launches to support near-term demand and provide a positive carryover effect into next year,” the research house said.
While demand for national models would remain resilient next year, it expects total sales to decline 2% year-on-year to 774,000 units from 790,000 this year on weaker consumer sentiment amid inflationary pressures, higher prices for CBU EVs, intense competition from Chinese automobile firms, as well as a potential revision of the open market value (OMV) calculation methodology that would raise excise duties.
The OMV method has been deferred by another six months to next July from January.
The policy would have more of an impact on firms with higher exposure to locally assembled vehicles but would benefit Japanese and European marques.
CIMB Research said key catalysts for the sector include a strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar and yen, interest rate cuts, and supportive government policies such as the Hire Purchase (Amendment) Bill 2026, which should improve consumer confidence and provide better market transparency.
Meanwhile, downside risks to its call include further depreciation of the ringgit versus the US dollar and yen, potential interest rate hikes, and unfavourable policies such as the introduction of OMV assessments, which could raise average selling prices of new vehicles.
