KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s crude palm oil prices are expected to remain range-bound between RM3,800 and RM4,100 a tonne in January 2026, underpinned by a balanced supply-demand outlook, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).
MPOC stated that while the first quarter is typically the seasonal low for production, demand is expected to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan, supporting a drawdown in stocks.
"However, spillover weakness from the energy market, coupled with abundant oilseed supplies, is likely to cap any sustained price recovery, keeping prices within a narrow trading range,” it said in a statement today.
MPOC said that Malaysia’s palm oil exports are forecast to rise to 16.2 million tonnes in 2026, while production is expected to ease to 19.7 million tonnes as oil palm trees enter a resting phase following solid performance in 2025.
Malaysia’s palm oil production fell by 108,000 tonnes, or 5.3 per cent month-on-month, to 1.93 million tonnes in November.
Exports also fell short of expectations, reaching 1.21 million tonnes, largely due to weaker demand from Sub-Saharan Africa, which reduced imports in November after the region imported nearly 600,000 tonnes in October.
Demand from the European Union also softened after it confirmed a further 12-month delay in implementing the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), removing the need for importers to build precautionary stocks.
The combination of strong production and weaker exports pushed Malaysian palm oil stocks to 2.83 million tonnes in November, the highest level since March 2019.
Globally, MPOC said in the United States, soybean oil prices fell to a five-month low of US$1,130 per tonne as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) expects President Trump’s 2026 biofuel policy, which prioritises the use of domestically produced soybean oil, to be finalised only in the first quarter of 2026.
"Global soybean production is projected to stagnate at 424 million tonnes in 2026. Even so, ample soybean supplies are expected to continue weighing on market sentiment, as oilseed availability remains abundant,” it added. - Bernama
