External trade
AS the economic calendar thins this week, markets will be watching Malaysia’s November 2025 external trade numbers.
According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations, Malaysia’s balance of trade is expected to come in at RM16bil in November.
According to a Bloomberg poll, Malaysia’s exports are expected to rise by 11% year-on-year (y-o-y) in November.
Malaysia’s trade strengthened in October 2025, with exports jumping 15.7% y-o-y to RM148.3bil and imports rising 11.2% to RM129.3bil, lifting total trade 13.6% to RM277.6bil.
The trade surplus widened 58.9% y-o-y to RM19bil from RM12bil a year earlier.
Monetary policy
THE Bank of Thailand (BOT), Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC) are expected to announce their monetary policy decisions this week.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects the BOT to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the December meeting, citing recent gross domestic product or GDP deflator readings that signal rising deflation risks driven by debt-deflation dynamics.
Meanwhile, UOB expects BI to continue its rate-cutting cycle at the Dec 17 meeting, with a 25 basis point reduction to 4.50%.
UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja noted that BI has reaffirmed its commitment to liquidity support and indicated that the scope for further rate cuts remains, provided inflation stays within target.
ING said BI is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday to support growth, amid softer November inflation and easing rupiah pressure after the Federal Reserve’s recent cut.
ING also expects CBC to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% at its quarterly policy meeting on Thursday.
It said there is little justification for a rate cut despite recent Fed easing, citing upside surprises to growth this year and sensitivity around the stability of the Taiwan dollar.
China data
CHINA is expected to release its industrial production and retail sales data this week, alongside other key economic indicators.
ING expects industrial production and retail sales growth to edge up from October to 5.1% and 2.9% y-o-y, respectively.
However, fixed asset investment is forecast to deepen its contraction to minus 2.8% year-to-date.
In the absence of further stimulus, prices across China’s 70-city property market are likely to extend recent declines, while property investment is expected to slow further.
ING noted that policy support has been limited in recent months as the 2025 growth target appears largely secure.
