While economists say some statistics can be retroactively collected and disseminated, there’s a possibility that others will be skipped entirely. — Bloomberg
WASHINGTON: The October jobs and consumer price index (CPI) reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) and other key statistical agencies stopped producing and publishing economic data during the government shutdown, leaving policymakers without key data to assess the health of the United States economy.
While economists say some statistics can be retroactively collected and disseminated, there’s a possibility that others will be skipped entirely.
Economists have flagged the CPI and unemployment rate for October as those most likely at risk of not coming out due to how the data underpinning them are collected. The BLS, which is in charge of making decisions regarding the scheduling of its reports, has not released an updated schedule for which indicators will be released and when.
It’s possible the agency will choose to combine two months’ worth of data for a particular statistic into a singular release to get back on track. BLS did not respond to a request for comment.
“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt told reporters at a news briefing.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for more details on the source of this information.
Democrats originally demanded that any stopgap bill to fund the government include an extension of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies and a reversal of Medicaid funding cuts – something Republicans repeatedly rejected.
Earlier this week, several Senate Democrats voted with Republicans on a compromise plan to reopen the federal government. The House is poised to pass the Senate-approved legislation, possibly by late yesterday.
The White House initially said late last month there would not be an October inflation report, noting it’d be the first time in history the figures would be skipped.
At the time, the BLS said it would resume normal operations once funding is restored and would notify the public of any changes to its release schedule.
Leavitt didn’t clarify whether she was referring to the entire jobs report or just part of it.
The report is composed of two surveys – one of businesses, which produces the main payrolls number, and another of households, which is responsible for the unemployment rate.
While many businesses retain their records and report the data themselves electronically, reaching workers over the phone and asking them to recall their employment status for a particular week in October will be more difficult to conduct retroactively.
“I’ve been told that some of the surveys were never actually completed, so we’ll never, perhaps, even know what happened in that month,” White House National Economic director Kevin Hassett told CNBC.
“We’re going to be staring a little bit in cloudy, cloudy weather for a while until we get the data agencies back up.”
Leavitt expressed concern that the lack of data is “leaving our policymakers at the Federal Reserve (Fed) flying blind at a critical period.”
Fed officials next meet Dec 9-10 to decide whether to lower interest rates for a third time this year. — Bloomberg
