PETALING JAYA: CIMB Group Holdings Bhd
may report loan growth that is steady, depending on the timing of corporate loan drawdowns which will support the regional bank’s momentum.
Maybank Investment Bank Research (Maybank IB) said this ahead of CIMB Niaga’s third quarter ended Sept 30, 2025 (3Q25) results, which would be announced on Oct 30.
“Operationally, we expect earnings to be stable and positive surprises – if any – could potentially emanate from lower-than-expected credit costs,” Maybank IB said.
In its report to clients, it noted that net interest margins (NIMs) in Malaysia are likely to remain under pressure from the 25 basis points (bps) overnight policy rate cut in July, while Singapore NIMs are under pressure from a falling Singapore benchmark rate.
Positively, liquidity is improving in Indonesia, and this could provide support to the banking group, it said.
Non-interest income momentum is also likely to have improved on a sequential basis and tactical cost savings could continue, it added.
Maybank IB said the group could surprise positively in terms of credit cost.
“Management targets a FY25 credit cost of 25 bps to 35 bps, against 29 bps in the first half of 2025 (1H25) and our assumption of 33bps.
“Overall credit cost could surprise positively, in our view, given that asset quality has been stable, and should there be any writeback in provisions on investment securities.”
The research house is maintaining its forecasts, along with its “hold” call and target price of RM7.60 for the stock.
At last look, the share price was trading at RM7.48.
In its report, Kenanga Research said with improved clarity surrounding US trade tariffs and sentiment, CIMB is anticipating a stronger loans pipeline, although the research house expects this to translate more meaningfully in 4Q25 to meet its loan growth target of 5% to 7%.
“The improved sentiment has also spilled over into the group’s trading and foreign exchange segments, which are showing signs of recovery in both volumes and transaction values following a softer 2Q25.
“Amid this and in addition to declining bond yields, we opine the group could also enjoy revaluation gains in both its equity and fixed income holdings,” it said.
MBSB Research said as long as CIMB could keep its asset quality under control, it reckons FY25’s return on equity target is achievable while the bank maintains a respectable level of loan growth.
“We will continue to monitor CIMB Thai’s progress – the region remains a persistent source of overhang.”
On NIMs, MBSB Research said the worry largely stemmed from Singapore’s adverse benchmark rate movements, which might negatively impact NIMs all the way till 4Q25.
In contrast, Malaysia has a “neutral” outlook due to reduced deposit campaign rates in May, though year-end deposit competition provides some downside risk.
CIMB Niaga, on the other hand, could see NIM upside coming from liquidity improvement, MBSB said.
It also said to expect a strong non interest income quarter.
“So far, trading and foreign exchange income have shown sequential improvement this quarter.
“Besides loan syndication income, management does not see a significant pick-up in investment banking-related fees, though deal-related income has been more stable.”
