PETALING JAYA: Gold prices are expected to remain bullish and rise to the US$5,000 per-ounce mark next year despite the recent technical correction and profit-taking following a record-breaking rally this year.
Analysts tracking the precious metal said support would come from a weakening US dollar from anticipated benchmark interest-rate cuts, continued US trade policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks and major central banks’ gold bullion buying spree.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told StarBiz spot gold prices have risen by 57.2% from Dec 31, 2024 to Oct 21, 2025.
He remains upbeat on the potential for prices to rise next year.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid
“We also noticed that such a phenomenon is also prevalent in prices for other precious metals.
“For instance, silver, platinum and palladium have risen substantially by 81.6%, 81.6% and 65.7%, respectively.
“Such a trend is in tandem with the decline in the US Dollar Index from close to 110 points in the earlier part of this year to currently at about 98.806 points.
“Such trends coincide with the expectation of an interest rate cut in the United States, along with concerns about weaker prospects for the US economy,” he said.
Furthermore, he said US policies such as import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration crackdowns would likely continue to have a severe impact on the country’s economy in the long run.
On top of that, Mohd Afzanizam said the United States no longer commands the highest credit rating after Moody’s Rating downgraded the US sovereign rating from AAA to AA1 in May.
“On that note, gold is deemed as the best place to seek protection against market volatility.
“We have seen demand from the global exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increasing substantially to 397.1 tonnes in the first half of this year versus minus 6.8 tonnes last year.
“Clearly, the investing community has put their money into gold as a means to earn higher returns as well as to hedge against market uncertainty” the economist added.
Mohd Afzanizam highlighted that demand from global central banks has risen by 22.3% per year between 2010 and 2024 on a compounded annual growth rate.
He said ETFs became net buyers in the first-half of this year by acquiring 397.1 tonnes from being net sellers for the past four years.
The Bank Muamalat chief economist projects gold prices hovering around US$4,500 by year-end and US$5,000 per ounce by the end of next year.
Gold reached a record all-time high of more than US$4,300 per ounce this month driven by a weakening US dollar, geopolitical tensions, inflation and high central-bank demand for the precious metal.
Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed.
Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed said the gold market has entered an era of structural preeminence, with the price trajectory remaining intact despite corrections.
He said gold has transcended its defensive heritage to re-emerge as a monetary constant in an age of economic fragility and policy flux.
The rally’s momentum stems from a confluence of macro forces: expectations of synchronised global rate cuts, persistent geopolitical disorder, robust central-bank accumulation, revived ETF inflows, and a weakened US dollar, he said.
Together, these factors have restored gold’s status as the only asset class with absolute zero counterparty risk, immune to credit exposure and institutional fragility.
Tangible assets like gold, real estate, silver, agriculture and luxury goods have come back in vogue.
Shan said: “Central banks from Beijing to Warsaw to Moscow to Astana to Istanbul remain steadfast buyers, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022, signalling a deliberate de-dollarisation and renewed pursuit of monetary sovereignty.
“I foresee that gold is poised to consolidate further between US$4,500 and US$5,000 by end-2025, advancing toward US$5200 to US$6,300 in 2026.
“In a world of fiscal recklessness and monetary dissonance, monetary experimentation and geopolitical entropy, gold has reclaimed its sovereign stature, the metal of conviction, the arbiter of stability, and the currency of confidence in a fragile world order.”
OCBC Bank currency strategist Christopher Wong
OCBC foreign-exchange strategist Christopher Wong maintains a constructive outlook on gold into 2026 on a mix of structural and fundamental factors.
“Strong official-sector demand, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) embarking on rate cut cycle and broader portfolio demand for gold as a reliable store of value and hedge against inflation, debt and geopolitical risks should help underpin the constructive outlook,” he noted.
Wong said gold remains a traditional portfolio diversifier and hedge against geopolitical stresses, policy uncertainty and stagflation risk.
He said the degree of portfolio allocation to gold has evolved, and expects prices to be structurally higher than in past cycles.
He noted that participation has also broadened beyond the dominant anchors of demand from official and institutional buyers.
Wong said retail participation has risen notably, reflecting both accessibility through digital platforms and growing awareness of gold’s resilience and store of value.
“In the last 25 years, gold has on average risen about 12% versus the US dollar per annum, but gold’s rise of about 34% in 2024 and over 50% year-to-date may have caught more attention from a wider audience, that it is a reliable store of value.
Wong projects gold prices at US$4,060 by year-end, and US$4,230 by end of 2026, but does not rule out the risk of gold prices overshooting the bank’s end-2026 forecast should the momentum in the gold market returns.
Meanwhile, James Steel, the chief precious metals analyst at HSBC Global Investment Research expects gold to hit as high as US$5,000 per ounce in 2026, from US$4,600 by end of 2025.
“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for the first half of 2026 and we could very well reach a high of US$5,000 some time in the first half of 2026.
Concerns over a “crowded trade” should prices continue to rise could also lead to a correction later in 2026 and be augmented from subsiding geopolitical risks, clarification of US tariffs or the Fed’s rate cutting cycle drawing to a close.
He said in the current economic and geopolitical climate. gold has been targeted by a wide array of investors as never before, and besides traditional participants, a new coterie of institutional and high net worth individuals have also become participants, with many motivated by the fear of missing out.
“The injection of this group into the market, as well as record prices, serves to increase volatility and we expect volatility levels to rise going into 2026.
“Almost all investment vehicles are being utilised by investors and while retail investors are also participating the thrust of the buying is institutional.
“Unlike previous rallies we believe many of these new buyers are likely to stay in the gold space even after the rally ends.
“This is not so much for appreciation necessarily as for gold’s diversification and ‘safe haven’ qualities,” Steel noted.
