Tradeview Capital's Wong said the FBM KLCI could still test 1,600 within the next couple of weeks.
PETALING JAYA: While the FBM KLCI may have closed lower yesterday, apparently in a cautious nod to the release of the country’s second-quarter (2Q25) gross domestic product (GDP) numbers at noon today, analysts believe the economic data will have a limited impact on the premier index’s performance, unless it is surprisingly unfavourable.
The FBM KLCI settled at 1,581.05 points yesterday, down by 5.55, as losers trounced gainers by 472 to 379, as expert observers believe that Malaysia’s GDP growth for 2Q25 is likely to miss the advanced target of 4.5%, ahead of Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) official announcement.
Bursa Malaysia’s flagship bourse has notably increased by approximately 4.5% since the start of August, from the 1,513.25 close on July 31.
Head of dealing at Moomoo Malaysia Ken Low thinks that from a flow and positioning standpoint, the market’s ability to test the 1,600-mark in the near term hinges more on liquidity momentum than a single GDP data point.
“While a miss versus the 4.5% advance estimate could dampen sentiment, foreign inflows remain constructive and domestic institutional participation is steady.
“Unless the GDP print comes in materially below consensus, we expect any dip to be met with buy-on-weakness interest.
“That said, the index pushing through 1,600 points in the next couple of weeks would require no deterioration in global risk appetite and continued stability in the ringgit,” he told StarBiz.
Low pointed out that the August rally has been underpinned by a number of factors, among them sustained foreign net buying, aided by relative valuation appeal versus regional peers; sector earnings resilience in banking and consumer counters; as well as a relatively stable macro backdrop.
“The market has also been pricing in potential tailwinds from infrastructure rollouts and the energy transition theme, which are less sensitive to quarter-to-quarter GDP fluctuations,” said Low.
Head of Asia equity strategy at HSBC Herald van der Linde observed that investors have turned their focus back on Asean equities, which benefits Malaysian markets.
He identified the prospects of a weaker US dollar and lower interest rates to be an important factor, saying it helps Asia markets in general and Asean in particular.
“Also, the recent softness in Malaysian equities was a result of two factors – escalated tariff tensions and unease surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and data centre spending.
“Tariff risks have minimised at least for now, and everyone in Asean-5 faces similar tariff rates. This does not put Malaysia in any relative disadvantage to its peers,” he added.
Moreover, van der Linde said the recent earning prints from the hyperscale data centres in the United States have restored investor confidence in AI as an investment theme, which he opined has reverberated through equity markets in Malaysia.
He said: “We do not see modest negative surprises in GDP to be detrimental to this newly restored confidence.
“However, any escalation in trade tensions, or negative news on the AI front are the bigger risks to look out for. Our 2025-end target for FBM KLCI is 1,600.”
Head of equity sales and analyst at Rakuten Trade Vincent Lau concurred with Low that unless 2Q25 GDP growth shows up to be south of 4%, the “negative surprise” impact is limited.
While pointing out that any rate between 4% to 4.5% is already anticipated by the market, he hopes the recent good run on the FBM KLCI – which has mirrored the performances of other regional bourses – could become more broad-based.
“External trade factors have to an extent settled down, especially with the tariff truce between the United States and China, coupled with our own government having negotiated a better rate.
“However, although we are confident the index could reach the range of 1,630 to 1,650 by year-end, it would be healthier for the mini bull-run to also extend to the smaller caps, including the companies on initial public offerings,” Lau said.
Meanwhile, chief investment officer at Tradeview Capital, Nixon Wong, who is also forecasting the FBM KLCI to touch 1,650 by the end of the year, nonetheless reported that the index’s recent run up toward 1,600 has been driven mainly by local institutional buying.
This is particularly in banking, utilities and telecommunication stocks, which is bolstered also by optimism around rate cut prospects in the United States .
Despite cautioning that a larger than expected GDP growth miss could raise concerns over corporate earnings momentum, Wong emphasised the market is still in the August earnings window.
“Strong results from banks, plantations and utilities could keep the index resilient even if GDP is soft, and vice versa. The FBM KLCI could still test 1,600 within the next couple of weeks, supported by US rate cut hopes and selective earnings strength,” he remarked.
More importantly, Wong said with China’s market volatility and US valuations stretched, Asean is getting more attention from global allocators.
He believes Malaysia, being relatively stable politically and macro-wise, can attract equity flows even in a slower growth environment.
“If the GDP slowdown is mild and BNM responds with easing while government spending continues, the index could still stay supported above the 1,550 to 1,570 base and attempt 1,600 points again in early 2026,” he added.
