- Bloomberg
Inflation
THE consumer price index (CPI), due for release this week, is projected to show a stable year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 1.2%, matching the rate recorded in May 2025.
Malaysia’s inflation rate is expected to remain steady at 1.2% by the end of this quarter, based on forecasts from Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ projections.
Additionally, the Statistics Department is expected to release both the leading index and coincident index this week.
According to Trading Economics, the leading index is projected to reach 1.1% by the end of the quarter.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara is also expected to announce its international reserves position as at July 15 this week.
China LPR
CHINA’s one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) fixings for July are due this week, in an otherwise quiet period after last week’s major data releases.
According to a Bloomberg poll, all 10 analysts polled, including UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, expect the one-year and the five-year LPR fixings to be unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively.
ING expects no changes in the LPR fixings, despite ongoing price pressures and weak loan demand that support the case for further easing.
It believes the People’s Bank of China may wait for a more opportune window but still forecasts one more 10-basis-points (bps) rate cut and a 50bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before year-end.
UOB Research expects an additional 10bps interest rate cut in the fourth quarter of this year with the seven-day reverse repo rate, one-year LPR and five-year LPR to end the year at 1.3%, 2.9% and 3.4% respectively. The prospect of another 50bps cut to the RRR also remains in place.
Singapore CPI
THIS week, Singapore will release two key economic data points: CPI and industrial production.
Bloomberg estimates the y-o-y inflation rate to be 0.9%, up from 0.8% in May, while UOB Research estimates it at 1%.
For the core CPI, which excludes private cars and housing, Bloomberg estimates a y-o-y increase of 0.7%, up from 0.6% in May, whereas UOB Research estimates the increase at 0.8%.
Bloomberg estimates that Singapore’s industrial production for June will decline by 1.8% month-over-month and increase by 6.3% y-o-y, compared to a previous decrease of 0.4% month-over-month and an increase of 3.9% y-o-y.
South Korea GDP
SOUTH Korea’s second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rebound modestly by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter, according to ING.
ING noted that net exports should support growth, led by gains in semiconductors, vessels, and pharmaceuticals. Imports fell on lower commodity prices.
