Accelerating demand: A United plane on the tarmac of the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia. The airline is confident about a strong finish to the year, expecting full-year adjusted earnings of US$9 to US$11 a share. — Bloomberg
DALLAS: United Airlines Holdings Inc has refined its profit outlook for this year as travel rebounds, adding a dose of optimism following a bleak few months punctuated by flight disruptions, trade tensions and fighting in the Middle East.
The carrier now expects full-year adjusted earnings of US$9 to US$11 a share, United said in a statement on Wednesday that included second-quarter (2Q25) results that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
The Chicago-based carrier joined Delta Air Lines Inc in offering an improving view for the year, citing a double-digit acceleration in business demand so far this month compared with the 2Q25.
Delta said last week that travel in the US is recovering after approval of US President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending package and progress in tariff negotiations eased consumer concerns about economic uncertainty.
“The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year,” United chief executive officer Scott Kirby said in a statement.
United in April offered separate outlooks ranging from US$7 a share to as much as US$13.50 for the full year, based on whether the US was driven into a recession linked to Trump’s campaign to reset global trade or if demand stabilised at a higher level.
United shares fell 1.7% to US$86.94 at 5:08pm after the close of regular trading in New York on Wednesday.
The carrier’s stock has fallen roughly 9% this year, compared with about a 6% gain for the S&P 500 Index.
United also said it expects a 3Q25 adjusted profit of US$2.25 to US$2.75 a share, compared with analysts’ expectations of US$2.65.
Analysts were expecting an adjusted 2025 profit of US$9.92 on average as of Wednesday.
Flying capacity will be reduced across the industry in mid-August, which should help boost fares, United said.
The airline’s non-fuel unit costs, a gauge of efficiency, climbed 2.2% in the 2Q25 from a year ago.
United’s premium cabin revenue rose 5.6% in the 2Q25 from a year ago, while sales from its cheapest basic economy fare increased 1.7% year-on-year.
The carrier’s average fares and unit revenue fell “in all major markets” in the 2Q25, confirming the weakness in demand at that time, George Ferguson, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, said in a note.
“This is another warning sign that low-cost carriers could face much worse results given their focus on basic economy fares,” he said.
The airline had a 2Q25 adjusted profit per share of US$3.87, while analysts polled by Bloomberg were expecting US$3.84.
Quarterly revenue rose 1.7%, falling short of analysts’ expectations. Second-quarter revenue per seat mile dropped 4% from a year ago after United was forced to cut prices to win back travellers.
“Broad demand has accelerated,” Jefferies Analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a research note to clients. — Bloomberg
