A man walks past Hanoi Stock Exchange, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hanoi, Vietnam, April 15, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha
HANOI: Vietnam’s stock market is forecast to move within the narrow range of 1,220–1,250 points this month, as investors adopt a cautious stance, waiting for clearer developments in ongoing trade negotiations between Vietnam and the United States and also the United States and China.
While the launch of the new KRX trading system yesterday is expected to bolster sentiment in the short term, analysts stress that macro-economic factors, particularly US tariff policies, will be the main drivers of market direction.
According to analysts at Saigon–Hanoi Securities, the mild recovery seen in late April suggests supply pressure is easing.
However, the VN-Index remains in a consolidation phase, heavily influenced by investor sentiment.
The long-standing adage “sell in May and go away” could also dampen market liquidity at the beginning of the month. Given ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade tensions, investors are advised to maintain balanced portfolios and prioritise stocks with strong fundamentals and limited exposure to external trade risks.
Echoing this view, VPBank Securities Joint Stock Co, noted that while the KRX system is expected to enhance market infrastructure and pave the way for new products such as T+0 trading, intra-day transactions, short selling and options contracts, its immediate impact on the VN-Index may be limited.
The system’s long-term benefits lie in helping Vietnam advance towards emerging-market status, but any boost to investor sentiment would take time to materialise.
In the near term, positive signals from trade talks may enable the index to break above 1,250 points; if not, a correction towards the 1,200-point support level remains plausible.
On a more positive note, first-quarter earnings results are providing a much-needed support base for the market.
According to Construction Securities Inc, over 600 listed firms, accounting for around 41% of total market capitalisation, have released their financial statements, with net profits rising by 17.2% year-on-year.
The banking sector posted a 16.1% increase in net profits, while non-financial sectors grew 23.5%. The brokerage sector saw a modest 2% decline.
Meanwhile, capital inflows are showing signs of recovery. Following a sharp sell-off in early April due to concerns over US retaliatory tariffs, the market has seen several rebound sessions.
Despite the VN-Index ending April with a total loss of over 80 points (equivalent to 6.2%), market liquidity is gradually improving and foreign net selling has eased.
Data from several securities firms point to positive prospects in sectors such as securities, banking, infrastructure construction, real estate and logistics, industries that stand to benefit from public investment packages and infrastructure reform. Both Agriseco and VinaCapital have recommended closely monitoring these sectors as the market positions itself for the next growth cycle.
VinaCapital also highlighted the potential of government-led administrative reforms, efforts to improve the investment climate, and the growing prominence of emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, which is being strongly promoted by the Vietnamese government.
In this context, companies with solid fundamentals, stable operations, and strong access to domestic capital are expected to attract investor attention.
May will be a critical month for the VN-Index as the market navigates a lull in market-moving news.
Optimism around first-quarter earnings is currently counterbalanced by concerns over global trade tensions. With the index projected to fluctuate between 1,220 and 1,250 points, analysts suggest a significant breakout will require stronger catalysts. — Viet Nam News/ANN
