PETALING JAYA: TA Research is maintaining its forecast for exports to grow by 3.9% and imports to increase by 4.1%, while trade surplus is estimated to reach RM130.9bil.
The research house said looking ahead however, it recognises a number of risks that could possibly challenge this outlook.
“Key concerns include escalating geopolitical tensions, weakening demand from major trading partners, and prolonged sluggishness in global production activity.
“These estimates suggest a stable, albeit slightly moderated, trade performance, reflecting the evolving global economic landscape,” it said.
The research house added in contrast, 2024 saw stronger trade activity with exports and imports increasing 5.7% and 13.2% respectively, year-on-year.
Trade surplus however, dipped significantly by 36.4%, highlighting the impact of higher import growth.
“Given the still-uncertain external demand environment, achieving the trade surplus registered in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was RM46.05bil, appears challenging.
“If external demand remains sluggish, it could act as a drag on overall economic momentum,” TA Research noted.
The research house said it did expect a moderation in the first quarter of 2025 and maintained a first quarter gross domestic product growth forecast of 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Meanwhile, the research house said Malaysia’s trade performance for February 2025 increased 5.9% y-o-y to RM223.89bil but on a month-on-month basis, it fell 7.5% from RM241.97bil in January.
TA Research said despite the positive momentum for February, the drop in monthly figures reflected seasonal factors and potential shifts in external demand.
According to the research house, total exports grew by 6.2% to RM118.26bil, rebounding from the marginal 0.3% increase recorded in January 2025.
However, on a monthly basis, exports declined 7.9% due to the lower demand during the Chinese New Year festive period and lesser workdays.
“Historically, from 2015 to 2024, February has recorded an average month-on-month decline of 9%, suggesting that this year’s drop remains within the typical range of seasonal adjustments,” TA Research said.
On destinations, exports to Asean grew by 8.3% to RM34.62bil, mainly due to strong exports of electrical and electronics (E&E) products, machinery, equipment and parts as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
“Exports to major markets in Asean that recorded increases were Singapore, which rose by 17.2% as well as Thailand, which grew 14.7% year-on-year, on the back of solid exports of E&E products.
“Additionally, exports to Indonesia were higher by 8.5%, due to strong exports of petroleum products,” it said.
As for the United States, local exports accounted for 14.8% of total exports, increasing by 28.9% year-on-year.
The research house said the surge was due to a sustained demand for E&E products, palm oil and palm oil-based agricultural goods, as well as processed food.
Exports to the European Union also grew 7.7% from rising demand for E&E products as well as palm oil-based manufactured products.
However, exports to China registered a drop of 8.1% on account of lower exports of LNG, manufactures of metal as well as petroleum condensates and other petroleum oil.
Total imports increased at a more moderate rate of 5.5%, on the back of weaker demand for consumption and intermediate goods – reflecting cautious spending and potential adjustments in industrial activity.
“Consequently, the trade balance widened to a surplus of RM12.62bil, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase and a remarkable 244.8% surge from the RM3.6bil recorded in January 2025,” TA Research said.
