HO CHI MINH CITY: Vietnam is likely to secure high annual growth of 8%, or even double-digit rates after recording a 7% expansion last year, according to Global Economics and Markets Research at Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) executive director Suan Teck Kin.
The National Assembly’s recent decision to raise Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth target to at least 8% in 2025 and double-digit rates in the 2026 to 2030 period shows a high level of consensus across the political system for the country’s new development goals, despite many challenges facing the economy.
Suan said that achieving these targets will be a significant challenge.
Among the risks, the US tariff policies could impact one of Vietnam’s key growth drivers, which is international trade.
He pointed out that Vietnam is largely dependent on international trade, with exports accounting for 90% of the country’s GDP, the second highest in Asean after Singapore with 174%.
In addition, the United States is Vietnam’s largest export market, making up 30% of its total export turnover.
Therefore, if the United States imposes tariffs on Vietnamese goods, the manufacturing and service sectors would be significantly affected.
Export demand may decline due to a slowdown in global economic activity, thus impacting GDP growth.
The semiconductor cycle is also weakening, affecting the country’s high-tech exports.
Foreign direct investment inflows may slow down, as investors consider shifting to countries less likely to face US tariffs.
According to experts from UOB Bank, there are several sectors Vietnam can focus on to increase the chances of achieving a high growth rate of 8% in 2025 or even double digits in the next five years.
However, the growth rate needs to remain stable to avoid overheating and resource waste.
Suan suggested that Vietnam boost public investment to support growth and cushion declines in export and manufacturing activities. — Viet Nam News/ANN
