Maybank IB Research said it has raised its TIV forecast by 5% to 790,000 units for this year, from 750,000 earlier.
PETALING JAYA: Sales of vehicles priced RM150,000 and below are expected to receive a boost from the minimum-wage hike that came into effect this month and the civil servant salary adjustments that took place in December 2024.
This could support the overall total industry volume (TIV) this year, analysts say.
The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) had pointed out earlier this year that TIV was already at a high base in 2024, following 816,747 units sold last year.
Based on these factors, Maybank Investment Bank Research (Maybank IB Research ) said it has raised its TIV forecast by 5% to 790,000 units for this year, from 750,000 earlier.
“Our new 2025 forecast assumes sustained mass-market growth, offset by any weakness in the luxury segment, with positive catalysts compared with our previous assumption from another year of deferment for the open market value policy,” the research house said.
Implementation of the open market value policy would have brought about the upward revision of excise duties for locally assembled cars.
Last year, TIV growth was largely driven by Perodua, with the company’s sales growing 8% year-on-year to 358,102 units, while Honda’s sales rose 2% year-on-year to 81,699 units.
China-based automakers like Chery and BYD also experienced strong growth from a low base.
Maybank IB Research said the luxury segment would potentially face headwinds from more value-driven competition including from more affordable and attractive new electric vehicles (EVs).
Other factors that could affect sales of luxury vehicles are the planned cuts for subsidies of RON95 petrol and the high value goods tax which may offset growth from the other segments.
The research house said it also expects EVs and hybrid vehicles to expand their reach to 3% and 5%, respectively, of this total volume this year from 2% and 4%, last year.
This would be supported by new launches and aggressive pricing, especially from brands offering completely-built-up (CBU) models that are rushing to sell before the present incentives for CBU EVs expire.
“As of last October, only 3,354 EV chargers were installed in Malaysia, far below the 10,000 unit target for this year. Meeting this goal requires 554 new chargers to be installed every month compared with last year’s average of some 111 per month,” the research house said.
Meanwhile, UOB Kay Hian Research (UOBKH Research) said expects intensified competition among the non-national brands.
“The emergence of China car brands in Malaysia last year significantly disrupted the market, particularly affecting existing players. This led to the market share of major Japanese brands like Toyota and Mazda dropping to 14% last year from 16% in 2023 due to stiffer competition,” UOBKH Research said.
“Sales for Toyota and Mazda fell 12% each in 2024. Meanwhile, Chery surpassed Mazda to become a top-five brand by market share, with sales totalling 1,111 units, driven by aggressive promotions by the brand,” the research house noted.
UOBKH Research maintained its “market weight” stance on the sector with a forecast of a 9% drop year-on-year in TIV for this year to 740,000 units.
