BANGKOK: Thailand's central bank left its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday as widely expected, but said global factors would need to be monitored closely in setting monetary policy with heightened uncertainty ahead.
The Bank of Thailand's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep the one-day repurchase rate at 2.25% at its final meeting of 2024, after delivering a surprise cut at its previous policy meeting in October.
All but two of 30 economists in a Reuters poll had predicted the key rate would be held steady this week. The two outliers had expected a 25 basis-point cut. The median forecast in the poll was that rates would be cut by 25 basis points by mid 2025.
The central bank said the decision was consistent with the economic trajectory and preserved policy space amid increasing uncertainties about the policies of major economies.
"The committee recognises the heightened uncertainty going forward and deems it necessary to monitor economic growth and inflation outlook in deliberating monetary policy going forward," it said in a statement.
The central bank on Wednesday maintained its 2024 economic growth forecast at 2.7%, and kept its prediction for 2.9% growth in 2025.
Miguel Chanco, Chief Emerging Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the next rate cut would likely come in the second quarter of next year.
"We expect the BOT to remain on hold for a few more meetings, before enacting a second - and final - 25 basis points rate cut in the second quarter, most likely at the June sit-down," Chanco said.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has lagged its regional peers in recent years, saddled by high household debt and borrowing costs, and weak exports. Last year's growth was 1.9%.
The BOT predicted 2024 headline inflation at 0.4%, down from the 0.5% seen earlier, which is below its target range of 1% to 3%. It forecast headline inflation at 1.1% in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 1.2%.
The central bank maintained its projections for foreign tourist arrivals at 36 million this year and 39.5 million in 2025.
It upgraded its for forecast for export growth this year to 4.9% from 2.8%, and raised the forecast for export growth in 2025 to 2.7% from 2.0%.
Finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira had on Monday said he wanted a further rate cut, reiterating his call for policy easing to support the economy.
BOT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said earlier this month a mix of policies was needed to manage the economy as interest rates alone cannot address everything. - Reuters
