Eye on 2Q24 GDP
THE country’s economy is projected to have expanded by 5.8% in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) compared witjh the same period last year.
Bank Negara is scheduled to release 2Q24 GDP on Friday.
Advance estimates for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) suggest the economy expanded 5.8% in 2Q24.
Bloomberg estimates GDP to expand 5.5% in 2Q24 down from the advance estimates of 5.8%.
TA Research has maintained its view and projects overall GDP to increase by 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q24.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said economic growth is expected to hit the highest since 4Q22 in 2Q24, partly aided by year-ago low base effects and festive demand during the quarter with flexible fund withdrawals from Employees Provident Fund Account 3 providing a fillip.
Monetary policy
THE Philippine Central Bank (BSP) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are scheduled to announce their monetary policy this week.
UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research expects BSP to keep rates unchanged at its August meeting, going by upbeat inflation data for July and robust GDP growth for 2Q24.
However, UOBKH Research does not rule out the possibility of an off-cycle rate cut in September should the US Federal Reserve initiate its first rate cut next month and the current global market turmoil worsen.
UOBKH Research expects RBNZ to maintain its official cash rate at 5.5%, where it has been since May 2023.
GDP reports
SINGAPORE, Taiwan and Hong Kong will release their final GDP for 2Q24.
Bloomberg estimates Singapore’s GDP to expand by 2.6% y-o-y in 2Q24.
Singapore’s GDP grew 2.9% y-o-y in 2Q24, according to advance estimates from the Trade and Industry Ministry on July 12.
UOBKH Research anticipates a downward revision to the 2Q24 GDP growth to 2.5% y-o-y, considering the June IP data and assuming a slight moderation in services compared to the advance estimate.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg estimates Taiwan’s final 2Q GDP to grow 5.1% y-o-y, up from preliminary estimates of 5.09%.
