Market forecast to inch higher this week


Better mood: People visiting a market in Hanoi. A decline of 8% for fuel prices over the past month has helped cool inflation. — Bloomberg

HANOI: Recent positive developments in exchange rates and the price of oil have improved investor sentiment, with strong capital inflows into the domestic stock market driving benchmark indices higher, say insiders.

On the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index closed last week at 1,273.1 points and the HNX-Index on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) was last traded at 241.5 points.

Over the week, the former was bullish, soaring 2.3%, while the latter climbed by 2.5%.

Liquidity was up slightly, with the trading value of the entire market reaching 20.1 trillion dong per session, marking a 1.9% gain from the previous week.

Foreign investors continued to be net sellers, with a total net selling value of nearly 2.5 trillion dong across the market.

They sold to a net value of over 2.1 trillion dong on HoSE, but made a net purchase of 36 billion dong on HNX.

VNDirect Securities Corp said that the market had been supported by positive news.

After weaker-than-expected consumer price index reading for April in the United States, the US stock market reached new record levels.

The US Dollar Index, pitting the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies and government bond yields also experienced corrections, boosting hopes that there might be a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

This development would help ease some pressure on domestic exchange rates.

The central exchange rate and US dollar exchange rates at commercial banks recently declined.

Additionally, a significant drop in domestic fuel prices, with a decline of over 8% in one month, would help cool down inflationary pressures.

All the positive news lifted the domestic benchmark indices, VNDirect said.

According to experts from Mirae Asset Securities Co (Vietnam), the VN-Index’s four consecutive days of growth last week indicated a prevailing upward trend.

The securities firm believes this trend will continue for the next one to two sessions, potentially pushing the index towards the 1,280 point-level this week.

However, it also warned that the range of 1,275-1,280 represented a strong resistance level that investors needed to be mindful of over upcoming sessions.

Meanwhile, Viet Dragon Securities Corp noted that despite profit-taking pressure in the last session of the week, the market had maintained its upward trajectory.

Increased trading volume compared to the previous session suggested a rise in profit-taking activities.

Nevertheless, there was still a strong inflow of capital, supporting and cushioning the selling pressure.

Given signs that it would overcome profit-taking pressures, the market would have the opportunity to surpass the resistance level at 1,277 points and extend its recovery in the coming sessions.

However, the increase in supply and liquidity might lead to conflicts as the market reaches new highs, particularly within the challenging range of 1,280-1,300 points.

As a result, investors could expect the market’s recovery momentum to gradually expand, Viet Dragon Securities said. — Viet Nam News/ANN

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