China's economic outlook is far from gloomy

CHINA's vast economy — 1.4 billion people spread over 9.6 million square kilometers and a $18 trillion GDP — is made up of so many distinct and disparate features that any observer can easily find themes to support a predetermined optimistic or pessimistic outlook.

Viewed through a pessimistic lens, the contrast between sophisticated Shanghai and rural Guizhou province could not be sharper. Housing costs in prosperous coastal cities severely impede population mobility — and the move from low-paid to high-paid jobs. An aging society calls into question established retirement norms. Then there is the environmental burden of polluted rivers and coal-fired power plants. Meanwhile, less profitable state-owned enterprises have taken the investment lead from private firms, while collapsing land sales have created fiscal distress in certain provinces. All told, such themes provide the grist for a pessimistic outlook over the longer term.