The Week Ahead


Inflation

THE consumer price index (CPI), which is expected to be released this week, is estimated to grow 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 1.8% in February.

Inflation rate is expected to be 2.5% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.

The Statistics Department is also expected to announce leading index, coincident index and production price index (PPI) this week. According to Trading Economics, PPI is expected to be 2.10% by the end of this quarter.

Bank Negara is expected to announce its international reserves as at April 15 today.

China LPR

CHINA’s April one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) fixings will be announced this week.

According to a Bloomberg poll, all of the 13 economists polled (including UOB’s) expect the five-year LPR fixing to be unchanged at 3.95%. Similarly, for the one-year LPR, all 13 economists including UOB expect no change at 3.45%.

ING expects one-year and five-year rates to remain unchanged at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively.

Singapore economy

SINGAPORE’s inflation is expected to expand 2.9% y-o-y in March, according to Bloomberg estimates.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research estimates inflation to be 3% y-o-y from 1% month-on-month and 3.4% y-o-y in February.

Meanwhile, ING expects core inflation to stay elevated at 3.5% y-o-y, although this will be slightly slower than last month’s core inflation of 3.6%.

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