The country’s industrial production is expected to increase by 4.3% in September, an analyst said. — China Daily
SHANGHAI: China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 4.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, according to Securities Daily.
The Chinese economy has shown a trend of stabilisation and recovery, and the internal growth impetus of the economy has continued to strengthen as a series of policies to stabilise growth continue to take effect.
The country’s industrial production sentiment has improved, and industrial production is expected to increase by 4.3% in September, said Zhang Wenlang, chief macroeconomic analyst with investment bank China International Capital Corp.
In terms of consumption, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to rebound to 5.5% in September, said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.
From the perspective of major commodities, the expansion of the service industry has accelerated, among which the retail and postal business activity indices have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month.
Automobile consumption performance is eye-catching with passenger car market retail sales increasing by 13% year-on-year from Sept 1 to 24, according to Zhang Wenlang.
With the accelerated introduction of real estate optimisation policies, commercial housing transactions improved month-on-month in September, helping to repair real estate-related consumption.
The real estate policies have been further optimised since the end of August and the real estate construction manufacturing purchasing managers’ index picked up in September with stabilised cement prices, said Bian Quanshui, chief macroeconomic researcher at Western Securities.
It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in September will continue to pick up, and the cumulative growth rate in the first nine months is expected to be 3.1%, according to Bian.
“At present, the effect of domestic ‘steady growth’ policy is gradually emerging while the bottoming out of the fundamentals has basically been verified. The economy is expected to further improve due to the effects of the real estate policy,” said Wen Bin.
It said GDP growth would reach 5.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the two-year average growth rate would further rise to 4.3%, said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International.
The momentum of economic growth in Q4 is expected to improve comprehensively, among which the recovery momentum of consumption will continue to strengthen and the growth rate of investment will turn from a decline to an increase, according to Wang Qing. — China Daily/ANN
