Maybank Group’s regional head of FX Research and strategy Saktiandi Supaat, said there are risks of the US dollar strenghtening should inflation numbers roar ahead and in turn, creating the expectation that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hikes may be aggressive in September.
PETALING JAYA: The ringgit could breach the RM4.50 level against the greenback on concerns over domestic political issues ahead of the 15th General Election (GE15) and further US dollar strengthening.
The ringgit closed the trading week at RM4.45 against the US dollar as the greenback weakened despite US initial jobless claims data showed its job market remained strong.
Maybank Group’s regional head of FX Research and strategy Saktiandi Supaat, said there are risks of the US dollar strenghtening should inflation numbers roar ahead and in turn, creating the expectation that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hikes may be aggressive in September.
Although the Fed chairman has recently signalled that rate hikes may not be aggressive moving forward, San Fransisco Fed president Mary Daly told Reuters recently should inflation figures come in stronger, the Fed may increase rate hikes to 75 basis points.
Saktiandi foresees the ringgit US dollar pair to trade between the RM4.40 to RM4.50 range in the short term as concerns over global recession and domestic politics would create volatility in the ringgit.
“Its all going to be data-driven and dependent on the US dollar movement, which would then affect the ringgit,” he told StarBiz.
Saktiandi foresees the ringgit US dollar pair to trade between the RM4.40 to RM4.50 range in the short term as concerns over global recession and domestic politics would create volatility in the ringgit.
“All these factors point to my view on the current range of RM4.40 to RM4.50 and the risk of going above RM4.45 to a dollar should the dollar strengthen.
“The risk of the ringgit breaching the RM4.45 level against the US dollar could happen if the greenback strengthens and the domestic issues in Malaysia spiral over the next two quarters,” he said.
Given that Fed’s Daly foresees a hike of 50 basis points in September, Satiandi said that dollar would soften and the ringgit would appreciate against the greenback.
That said, by end-year, his view is that the ringgit could touch the RM4.40 level against the greenback on the back of the US dollar mildly softening.
“The Fed might slow the pace of tightening or pause given the inflation peak. However, it all depends on the US dollar movement and concerns of developments domestically to the run-up of the GE15 in Malaysia.” he pointed out.
