CPO futures forecast to trade with downside bias next week

KUALA LUMPUR: The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is expected to trade sideways with downside bias next week, a dealer said.

Palm oil trader David Ng said the outlook is due to weak exports which would continue to weigh on CPO prices.

"We expect prices to trade between RM4,300 per tonne and RM4,500 per tonne next week," he told Bernama.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services’ data revealed that Malaysia’s exports for the Dec 1-15 period fell by 12.49 per cent to 772,137 tonnes from 882,385 tonnes in Nov 1-15, 2021.

Meanwhile, cargo surveyors AmSpec Malaysia reported that exports during Dec 1-15 fell 9.12 per cent to 725,600 tonnes from 798,399 tonnes in the preceding month.

However, earlier this week, MIDF Research has maintained a 'positive' stance on the plantation sector with a target price for CPO of RM3,300 per tonne in calendar year 2022.

"We believe the palm oil supply tightness situation will likely ease in 2022 due to higher production. In tandem, we expect stockpiles to slightly improve and eventually be back to pre-pandemic levels.

"Demand will still be resilient given the higher consumption locally and globally," it said.

For the week just ended, Malaysian CPO futures finished mostly lower, tracking weakness in the soybean oil market on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and export performance.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, January 2022 decreased RM178 to RM4,875 a tonne, February 2022 loss RM24 to RM4,626 a tonne, March 2022 reduced RM179 to RM4,404 a tonne and April 2022 was down by RM159 to RM4,242 a tonne.

Meanwhile, May 2022 dropped RM453 to RM4,583 a tonne and new distant month June 2022 stood at RM4,040 a tonne.

Weekly volume rose to 385,756 lots from 298,561 lots last week, while open interest improved to 260,897 contracts from 241,996 contracts previously.

The physical CPO price for December South dipped RM360 to RM4,920 a tonne. - Bernama

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