According to RHB Research, ticket sales should recover due to the inelastic nature of the business, while its low operating ost structure should also mitigate the negative impact.
All numbers forecast operator (NFO) outlets have been closed since June 1 due to the tighter restrictions to halt the pandemic.
In April and May, average jackpot ticket sales per draw was estimated at about 80% of pre-pandemic levels.
RHB expects the earliest reopening date of NFOs to be Phase 3 of the NRP, which is targeted for September.
"As such, we cut our FY21F-23F earnings by 74.9-3.8% after reducing our draw days assumption by 61 days, as we assume the NFO outlets will remain closed until end September, while factoring in a slightly longer period to reach 100% of pre-pandemic levels post re-opening.
"Consequently, we lower our FY21F DPS to 4 sen from 9 sen, as management will likely be prudent in managing cash flow," it said.
RHB lowered its discounted cashflow-dervied target price to RM2.61 but maintained its "buy" call for its attractive FY22 dividend yield of 8%, backed by a resilient NFO business.