PETALING JAYA: AmInvestment Bank Research is maintaining its forecast for the ringgit to trade against the US dollar at RM4.10 to RM4.15 for this year and between RM4.05 and RM4.10 for 2022.
“Over the long term, we continue to believe that the ringgit would benefit from a weaker US dollar and could touch RM4.15, which is stronger than the mid-point of its long-term trading range (RM3.80 to RM4.50),” said the research house.
In a research note yesterday, it said that it expects the ringgit to strengthen by 0.2% to 0.5% against the US dollar. It pointed out that the factors that could impact the ringgit were the Covid-19 pandemic uncertainties, coupled with the management of the pandemic, the speed of vaccination, the eventual reopening of the economy, the strength of external demand and domestic political challenges.
In the short term, it expects the ringgit to weaken significantly partly on concerns over Covid-19 cases and the management of the pandemic. The recent outbreaks of the pandemic, lockdown measures and the enhanced movement control order in certain states are posing significant challenges to the economy and political space.
The effects of these challenges to the economy and political outlook over the short term are also seen to have spilled over into the social environment, it added.
This will weigh on the ringgit over the coming months although the government has rolled out another RM150bil under the National People’s Well-Being and Economic Recovery Package, bringing the total stimulus to RM530bil or 37% of gross domestic product.