Indonesia air traffic forecast to fully recover in 2026

JAKARTA: Indonesia’s domestic and international flight volume is projected to fully recover by 2026, mainly assuming outbreak containment goes as planned, according to a recent key study.

Domestic flight volume is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2024 while international volumes in 2026, according to the study conducted by Padjadjaran University (UNPAD) and commissioned by the Indonesia National Air Carrier Association (INACA).

UNPAD researchers explained last week the projections assumed that Indonesia successfully completed its second phase vaccination programme of 38.87 million citizens by March 2022 and that most of Asia, Europe and the United States optimised their vaccination programs by that same year, as per schedule.

“Yes, the vaccine will be a game changer, but so will adopting health protocols and providing good health facilities in the airline industry. These will improve public trust and revive the airline industry, ” said lead researcher and UNPAD economic professor Yayan Satyakti.

The white paper is set to be INACA’s main reference in viewing Indonesia’s airline industry outlook in the post-pandemic years after flights plummeted 64.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2020 to 470,898 visitors, a level unseen in more than a decade, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data.

Furthermore, the study quantitatively confirms the industry’s long-held belief that Indonesia’s airline industry’s recovery is pegged, above all, on domestic travel and outbreak containment, the latter of which poses the greater challenge.

“We know that optimism is important but creating realistic projections is equally important so that all stakeholders in the airline industry can adjust to government programs, ” said INACA chairman Denon Prawiraatmadja. — The Jakarta Post/ANNThe study projects Indonesia’s domestic flight volumes to begin a robust recovery in 2022 before fully recovering in 2024, when annual volumes reach 78.73 million passengers, compared to the 79.02 million in 2019, before the pandemic struck the world.

Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta and East Java would benefit the most from a recovery in domestic flights whereas Bali would be relatively unchanged as the tourist island’s visits mainly come from international tourists.

The study also projects international flight volumes to begin a robust recovery in 2023 and fully recover by 2026, when passenger volumes reach 38.21 million, compared to the 36.59 million before the pandemic in 2019. – The Jakarta Post/ANN

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