IMF now forecasts a rebound – even so, output in 2021 will still be 5% lower than its October 2019 estimates for AEs. The pandemic leaves behind lasting scars, including a deep recession with serious solvency issues and really, really high unemployment. IMF numbers are not pessimistic enough. As I see it, if lockdowns have to be extended beyond 2Q’20 & Covid-19 returns later in a milder outbreak, the overall global hit can be twice as hard!
THE Covid-19 lockdowns have led to a deep economic dive, sending shockwaves around the world. IMF estimates world GDP will fall by 3% in 2020 (down 6.3 percentage points from its earlier forecast of +3.3% in late January).
In 2009, the worst year of the global financial crisis, global output dipped only 0.1%. Advanced economies (AEs) are now expected to contract by 6.1%, and emerging market economies (EMEs) to shrink by 1% in 2020. Both China & India will continue to grow.
Limited time offer:
Just RM5 per month.
