Malaysia: Fiscal deficit strain and limited monetary ammunition


Thus, pressure on the fiscal deficit/GDP, which is now at 3.4%, could rise to 3.6%–3.8% of GDP based on an RM8.1bil loss in revenue. With the risk of the oil price weakening to US$20–US$25 per barrel, it could increase our revenue loss by RM11.1bil–RM12.6bil.

OIL markets are crashing at the worst rate since the first Gulf War in 1991 amid a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. What we are witnessing now is similar to the 2008-2009 financial crisis – in which part of the rout could be attributed to panic selling.

In a rush to find haven assets, the 10-year US Treasury yield plunged to a record low of 0.5% – the sharpest rally for US sovereign debt in more than a decade. In Malaysia, the 10-year MGS yield plummeted to an all-time low of 2.76%.

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