Beijing: The outbreak of the coronavirus and China’s efforts to stop its spread mean economists are again revising their estimates for output this quarter, with the median forecast for year-on-year growth to be 4.0%, the weakest in 30 years.
Oxford Economics is the latest to change, cutting its growth forecast for the year to 4.8%, citing delayed work resumption and weak global growth. Saturday’s trade data, hurt by supply chain disruptions and weak domestic and global demand, coupled with lacklustre manufacturing data, underscores the broad-based nature of the economic contraction, it said.
For 2020, the median forecast in February was for gross domestic product to grow 5.5%, according to a survey. That was already down from the forecast of 5.9% in January, but doesn’t take into account the slump in the gauge of factory activities posted on Feb 29.
Some analysts also expect a sizable drop in economic activity this quarter, compared to the last three months of 2019. — Bloomberg
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