Hong Kong, is already in recession. The most optimistic is for China GDP to fall one to two percentage points in 1Q’20; and as WCO spreads, 2Q’20 performance will be downgraded. Bear in mind that the Hubei region (Wuhan being its capital) is an industrial hub and forms a vital part of the global supply chain.
The world is in a state of flux. So much so the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its October 2019 global growth at Davos on Jan 20 by 0.1% percentage point for 2019 and 2020, and by 0.2 percentage point for 2021. This reflected mainly a poorer outlook for India, although China’s growth was revised upwards because of the recent US-China trade pact.
Even before the ink was dry, the Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak (WCO) closed China to the world, further straining the global economy. Indeed, this rare freeze-out for such a vital economic centre, is rippling across the world.
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