Hong Kong: The record oil-price surge after a strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility couldn’t come at a worse time for a world economy already in the grip of a deepening downturn.
While the severity will depend on how long the price spike endures, the development will further erode business and consumer confidence that already are fragile amid the US-China trade dispute and slowing global demand.
A manufacturing slump around the world is hammering growth in export powerhouses China and Germany.“A negative supply shock like this, when global growth is in a synchronised slowdown with many geopolitical hotspots simmering, is just what we don’t need, ” said Rob Subbaraman, head of global macro research at Nomura Holdings Inc in Singapore.
The oil shock comes amid a flurry of warning signs for the global economy.
Data out yesterday from China included the worst single-month reading for industrial output since 2002. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its global growth outlook – already the lowest since the financial crisis – to 3.2% this year and 3.5% next; a rate of 3.3% or lower would be the weakest since 2009.
The impact from the oil-price spike will vary around the world.
Emerging economies nursing current account and fiscal deficits – like India, South Africa and others – run the risk of large capital outflows and weaker currencies.
Exporting nations will enjoy a boost to corporate and government revenues, while consuming nations will bear the cost at the pump, potentially fanning inflation and hurting demand.
As the world’s biggest importer of oil, China is vulnerable to rising crude prices, while many countries in Europe also rely on imported energy. With inflation not an immediate concern in the global economy, the bigger worry is the effect a price shock will have on already weak global demand.
“Inflation is not really an issue at the moment, ” said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
“But the production shortage and price increase will choke purchasing power and thus weigh on spending at a precarious moment for the global economy.”
An IMF analysis in 2017 found that a one-year, one-standard-deviation shock to oil supply – in which the oil price jumps more than 10% – would erode world output by about 0.1% for two years. — Bloomberg
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