Will emerging markets rise on US recession?


“A resumption of construction work for the East Coast Rail Link, Light Rail Transit 3 and other mega projects should pull productivity growth back up, starting from the third quarter this year,’’ said Pong Teng Siew, head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.

Will emerging markets (EMs) stand a chance for a rally as a San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank study signals a heightened risk of recession in the US?

If history is any gauge, EM stocks had outperformed on two out of three previous occasions when the US yield curve inverted as shorter term rates went higher than longer term ones.

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